For a long time, MTN Group investors needed strong nerves. As a flagship of Africa’s digital growth, the operating success of the Johannesburg-listed telecoms giant was often overshadowed by the vagaries of emerging-market macroeconomics. After a “lost year” in 2024, marked by a severe currency crisis in Nigeria, the 2025 results suggest the group has not only awakened, but is fundamentally redefining its identity. The equity story is no longer just about voice minutes, but about the shift to a “Techco” — a high-margin investment in the future of Africa’s fintech and infrastructure sectors.
The Big Turnaround: From Macroeconomic Headwinds to Operational Alpha
The turning point came on March 16, 2026, when MTN Group announced what CEO Ralph Mupita described as “exceptional” results for fiscal year 2025. After a large loss in 2024 due to the sharp devaluation of the Nigerian naira, the group rebounded impressively, delivering annual profit growth of more than 1,000%. Service revenue climbed to 218.5 billion rand, a 22.7% increase on a constant-currency basis — the company’s strongest growth rate in almost two decades.
The epicenter of this recovery is Nigeria. Despite an average naira exchange rate of 1,436 naira per dollar in 2025, MTN Nigeria’s service revenue grew by an impressive 54.9% on a constant-currency basis. More importantly, the subsidiary restored its equity position and resumed dividend payments to the South African holding company — a crucial liquidity step that had preoccupied the market most over the past 18 months. With EBITDA margins above 52% in Nigeria, the group has proven it can pass inflationary costs on to customers through tariff adjustments while maintaining customer loyalty.
Fintech Alpha: MoMo’s $500 Billion Services Platform
Connectivity remains the foundation, but the strength of the “Techco” lies in fintech. MTN Mobile Money’s (MoMo) ecosystem has reached a level of maturity that enables it to operate as a standalone financial services provider. With 70 million monthly active users (MAU) and transaction volume of more than US$500 billion in 2025, MoMo is arguably the continent’s most valuable digital asset.
The group’s platform strategy, formalized under the “Ambition 2025” framework and the newly introduced “Ambition 2030,” aims to decouple these digital assets from the capital-intensive telecoms business. A strategic investment by Mastercard in early 2024 already valued the fintech unit at US$5.2 billion. For investors, the dream of a full value uplift via a separate listing of the fintech or fiber unit (Baobab) remains alive — a step that would likely command a multiple of the group’s current P/E of 18.
Infrastructure Reintroduced: The US$6.2 Billion IHS Gambit
In a clear break with the “asset-light” trend of the past decade, MTN announced in February 2026 a US$6.2 billion agreement to acquire the remaining 75.3% of IHS Towers. This transaction represents a strategic pivot aimed at regaining control over the group’s passive infrastructure. By internalizing the margin currently paid to IHS and taking control of more than 37,000 mobile towers across Africa, MTN is targeting a transition to a Network-as-a-Service (NaaS) model. While the transaction raises short-term leverage concerns, management asserts it will be accretive to net profit and cash flow and will improve cost predictability in a volatile energy and currency environment.
The Shadow of Litigation: A €4 Billion Trademark Risk
However, any investment in MTN carries the risk of unforeseen events. In early 2026, a significant source of uncertainty emerged in the form of a €4 billion (US$4.3 billion) lawsuit filed by Irish company AC Shining Stars (ACS). At the center of the dispute is the unauthorized use of the registered “Mobile Money” trademark in 14 countries. ACS alleges that MTN uses the term as a standalone company designation rather than as a descriptive noun.
The risk was further amplified by a whistleblower complaint to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). It alleged that MTN failed to disclose this massive contingent liability in its 2025 annual financial statements and in the documentation for the IHS merger. While CEO Ralph Mupita expressed confidence that the claim does not currently warrant a provision, its sheer size — roughly 70% of the value of the IHS merger — represents an ongoing risk that conservative investors cannot ignore.
Valuation and Shareholder Returns
From a valuation perspective, MTN is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA of around 5.2, which remains attractive versus global peers given its technology transformation. The group’s financial position has improved markedly; net debt to EBITDA fell to 0.3 from 0.7 the prior year.
This balance-sheet flexibility has supported a solid shareholder remuneration framework. The board approved a final dividend for 2025 of 500 cents per share — a 45% increase that even exceeded management’s optimistic guidance. In addition, a new share buyback program worth 6 billion rand underscores management’s conviction that, amid the ongoing currency volatility of 2024, the stock is fundamentally undervalued.
iMaps Conclusion: Overweight – Strategic Upper Hand
MTN Group remains the indispensable gateway to Africa’s digital economy. The recommendation is:
OVERWEIGHT
driven by three core factors: the resilience of Nigeria’s recovery, the maturity of the MoMo fintech ecosystem, and a clear strategic roadmap through 2030.
The successful restoration of equity in Nigeria marks a turning point that materially improves liquidity at the group’s holding company. While the ACS trademark lawsuit and the SEC whistleblower complaint entail significant legal risk, the likelihood of a catastrophic €4 billion payout is considered low; an out-of-court settlement or a rebrand are the more likely outcomes.
Analysts forecast annual earnings growth of 35% over the next three years. With the stock currently trading at a 23.2% discount to its estimated fair value of 230 rand, the risk-reward profile is clearly skewed in favor of buyers. For long-term investors, the shift from an established telecoms company to a leading infrastructure and fintech group offers a rare valuation opportunity in emerging markets.
